FOURTH revolution - WEF (Davos meet)

WHAT is FOURTH REVOLUTION, that's being talked about everywhere in WEF meet in Davos this year. Let's understand what this fourth revolution is all about...

Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of WEF, said about the fourth revolution as a, "technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work and relate to one another."

The First Industrial revolution began in Britain in the last quarter of the 18th century, with the mechanization of the textile industry, harnessing of steam power, and the birth of modern factory. 

The Second Industrial Revolution began roughly a century after the first, and peaked at the beginning of the 20th century which was all about mass production, factories could produce countless number of identical products quickly and cheaply. 

The Third Revolution was industrial revolution, in the beginning of 1970's , was digital - and applied electronics and information technology to process the production. Mass customization and additive manufacturing - the so-called '3D printing' - are its key concepts, and its applications, yet to be imagined fully, are quite mind-boggling. 

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is conceptualized  as an upgrade on the third revolution - and is marked by the fusion of technologies.

Nicholas Davis, the head of Society and Innovation at the Forum, describes the new revolution as the advent of cyber - physical systems which, while being "reliant on the technologies and infrastructure of the third revolution.... represent entirely new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even with our human bodies". Examples, Davis says, include genome editing, new forms of machine intelligence, and breakthrough approaches for governance that rely on cryptographic methods such as blockchain.

What's in the store... ??

There are both opportunities and challenges.

• Schwab says, like the third industrial revolution, fourth one can lift global incomes and improve lives worldwide, and the supply-side miracle due to technologies innovation will lead to long-term gains in efficiency and productivity. At the same time, all revolutions have large groups of losers as well.

• Some believes, that revolution could increase inequality in the world as the spread of machines increases unemployment and disrupts labour markets. 

• A report by Swiss abnk UBS this week said that the spread of artificial intelligence and robots will harm economies like India and some Latin American countries by cutting their cheap labour advantage. 

• According to oxford researchers, 35% of workers in UK and 47% of workers in US could lose their jobs to technology over the next two decades.

Indeed, an increase in inequality remains the biggest social concern about the fourth industrial revolution. Schwab says that irrespective of the net outcome of the revolution, he is convinced "that in the future, talent, more than capital, will represent the critical factor of production", giving rise to a job market "increasingly seggregated into low-skill / low-pay and high-skill / high-pay segments, which in turn will lead to an increase in social tensions". 

India, with a very large low-skilled or unskilled youth population will likely to face major challenges.

When will it happen... ??

The fourth industrial revolution builds upon the third, which is primarily digital in nature. There were no bubbles during the first two revolutions, but there have been far too many in the third. A lot of models are not sustainable - or are waiting for a big disruptor to come along. For instance, music industry turned on its head with the Apple iPod, and the chances are the smartphone industry could be wiped away by the next big thing in tech, which could be just about anything.

CONCLUSION:

With device and product cycles being so short, it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict anything which has anything to do with technology. 

For all you know, the currently buzzy 'fourth industrial revolution' could be a very short interlude before the fifth one comes along. The current expectation is that driverless cars will be the disruptor that will put millions of drivers out of work and change everything from the taxi sector to the automobile industry.

Thanks for reading guys...!!

Reference: The Indian Express article...